6 Probability courses in Yeadon

OVERVIEW -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This training course is structured around the ISO 31000:2009 framework, principles and processes. It will also demonstrate how to develop internal control mechanisms and explain how to measure risk in terms of probability and potential impact, at the same time as ensuring that the organisation complies with increasingly strict international standards of corporate governance.

ABOUT THIS VIRTUAL INSTRUCTOR LED TRAINING (VILT)  This 4 half-day Virtual Instructor Led Training (VILT) course will address a variety of contract and loan structuring issues associated with geothermal energy projects as well as comparison with solar, wind and battery storage. The course is designed to investigate how various project finance techniques and contract structures can be used to achieve a competitive power prices while maintaining a satisfactory equity return. Distinctive project finance features of power facilities that depend on geothermal, wind, hydro or solar resources will be evaluated with financial models. The course will cover economic analysis of exploration and development of geothermal facilities and how to incorporate probability of failure and success into an IRR framework. Subsequent sessions will address the theory underlying liquidated damages for delay, and performance as well as design of other incentives that is inherent in different contract structures. Nuanced project finance issues associated with structuring debt for renewable projects will be discussed including under what conditions the DSCR drives debt capacity and when the debt to capital ratio is instrumental. The course will be taught with a combination of theoretical discussions, term sheet review and focused financial models. Training Objectives * Evaluation of the economic risks that arise from uncertainty associated with drilling exploration wells and development wells for geothermal projects. * Analyse the theoretical issues with computing LCOE for geothermal projects compared to other renewable and non-renewable resources and the importance of cost of capital for renewable projects; * Understand differences in contract structures for renewable projects and dispatchable projects and how a single price structure can distort incentives for efficient construction and operation; * Understand components of financing that influence the bid price required to meet a required rate of return on equity and can result in relatively low prices with reasonable returns. * Understand the importance of debt sizing constraints and what strategies are relevant when the debt to capital constraint applies relative to when the debt service coverage ratio drives the debt size; * Understand how to compute P50, P90 and P99 for different projects driven by resource risk; * Understand the difference between mean reverting resource variation and estimation mistakes that do not correct as the basis for 1-year P90 and 10-year P90. * Understand under what conditions debt sculpting can affect returns and how synthetic sculpting can be used to increase returns when the DSCR constraint applies. * Understand the theory of credit spreads, variable rate debt and interest rates in different currencies and compute the implied probability of default that in inherent in credit spreads. * Understand how to evaluate the costs to equity investors and the benefits to lenders for various credit enhancements including DSRA accounts, cash flow sweeps and covenants. Course Level * Basic or Foundation Training Methods The VILT will be delivered online in 4 sessions comprising 4 hours per day, with 2 breaks of 10 minutes per day, including time for lectures, discussion, quizzes and short classroom exercises. Trainer Your expert course leader provides financial and economic consulting services to a variety of clients, he teaches professional development courses in an assortment of modelling topics (project finance, M&A, and energy). He is passionate about teaching in Africa, South America, Asia and Europe. Many of the unique analytical concepts and modelling techniques he has developed have arisen from discussion with participants in his courses. He has taught customized courses for MIT's Sloan Business School, Bank Paribas, Shell Oil, Society General, General Electric, HSBC, GDF Suez, Citibank, CIMB, Lind Lakers, Saudi Aramco and many other energy and industrial clients. His consulting activities include developing complex project finance, corporate and simulation models, providing expert testimony on financial and economic issues before energy regulatory agencies, and advisory services to support merger and acquisition projects. Our key course expert has written a textbook titled Corporate and Project Finance Modelling, Theory and Practice published by Wiley Finance. The book introduces unique modelling techniques that address many complex issues that are not typically used by even the most experienced financial analysts. For example, it describes how to build user-defined functions to solve circular logic without cumbersome copy and paste macros; how to write function that derives the ratio of EV/EBITDA accounting for asset life, historical growth, taxes, return on investment, and cost of capital; and how to efficiently solve many project finance issues related to debt structuring. He is in the process of writing a second book that describes a series of valuation and analytical mistakes made in finance. This book uses many case studies from Harvard Business School that were thought to represent effective business strategies and later turned into valuation nightmares. Over the course of his career our key course expert has been involved in formulating significant government policy related to electricity deregulation; he has prepared models and analyses for many clients around the world; he has evaluated energy purchasing decisions for many corporations; and, he has provided advice on corporate strategy. His projects include development of a biomass plant, analysis and advisory work for purchase of electricity generation, distribution and transmission assets by the City of Chicago, formulation of rate policy for major metro systems and street lighting networks, advocacy testimony on behalf of low income consumers, risk analysis for toll roads, and evaluation of solar and wind projects. He has constructed many advisory analyses for project finance and merger and acquisition transactions. Lastly, our key course expert was formerly Vice President at the First National Bank of Chicago where he directed analysis of energy loans and also created financial modelling techniques used in advisory projects. He received an MBA specializing in econometrics (with honours) from the University of Chicago and a BSc in Finance from the University of Illinois (with highest university honours). POST TRAINING COACHING SUPPORT (OPTIONAL) To further optimise your learning experience from our courses, we also offer individualized 'One to One' coaching support for 2 hours post training. We can help improve your competence in your chosen area of interest, based on your learning needs and available hours. This is a great opportunity to improve your capability and confidence in a particular area of expertise. It will be delivered over a secure video conference call by one of our senior trainers. They will work with you to create a tailor-made coaching program that will help you achieve your goals faster. Request for further information about post training coaching support and fees applicable for this. Accreditions And Affliations

TELECOMMS TRAINING COURSE DESCRIPTION A comprehensive tour of the telecommunications technologies and terminology currently in use, and under development. WHAT WILL YOU LEARN * List and describe components of the PSTN. * Explain how calls are made over the PSTN * Compare analog and digital transmission methods. * Describe the technologies within the transport plane. * Recognise the benefits of extra features available in today's telephone networks. TELECOMMS TRAINING COURSE DETAILS * Who will benefit: Anyone new to the Telecommunications industry. * Prerequisites: None. * Duration 2 days TELECOMMS TRAINING COURSE CONTENTS * Telephone network architecture Handsets, local loop, distribution points, Local exchanges, main telephone switches, PBXs. * Making a call - some basics Telephone call components, how a telephone call works, accessing the local exchange, loop disconnect, DTMF, standards, E.164, PSTN routing, Intelligent Networks, Special Rate Services. * Analogue vs Digital Voice characteristics, PSTN bandwidth, analogue signalling, Digital encoding, PCM and the 64k, ADPCM and other voice compression methods. * PBXs PABX, Call processing, networking PBXs, PBX facilities, bandwidth, blocking probability and Erlangs, Erlang models, using Erlang tables. * Transmission methods Two wire transmission, 64k circuits, Nx64, E1, 2 wire to 4 wire conversion, echo, echo suppression, echo cancellers, twisted pair, coax, fibre optic, power lines, satellite systems, microwave. * Signalling Analogue signalling, loop start, earth calling, E&M, AC15. Digital signalling -CAS, robbed bits and E1 slot 16 signalling. Digital signalling CCS, Q.931, SS7, Q.SIG, DPNSS, DASS2. * Transport planes PDH, PDH issues, SDH, SDH architecture, SDH standards, SDH bit rates, SDH mulitplexors, DWDM. * Networks Circuit Switched Networks, TDM, Packet Switched Networks, Frame Relay, Message Switching, Circuit Switching, STDM, Cell Switching, ATM, ATM cells, ATM traffic parameters, ATM QoS, MPLS. * Other network access Modems, modulation, speeds, ISDN, BRI, PRI, xDSL, SDSL, ADSL. * Other Services Centrex, VPNs, FeatureNet, CTI, Call Processing Systems, Voice Mail, Automated Attendant Systems, Interactive Voice Response, Call Management Systems, Call Conferencing, Star Services. * Mobile communications 3 types of wireless telephone, mobile generations, base stations, cells, GSM, GPRS, 3G, UMTS, WCDMA, 4G, LTE. * VoIP overview What is VoIP, VoIP benefits, What is IP? The IP header, Packetising voice, VoIP addressing, H.323, SIP, RTP. Bandwidth requirements.

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Masterclasses? Refreshers? Introductions? It depends what you're looking for and where you want to pitch them, but here are six tried-and-tested highly focused sessions that organisations can take individually or as a series, to help develop their teams' project management capabilities one topic at a time. Objectives for each individual session are set out below, as part of the session outlines. Taken together, as a series, however, these modules are an ideal opportunity to develop your team's levels of project management capability maturity, whether that's by introducing them to the basic principles, refreshing them on best practice, or giving them the opportunity to really drill down into a specific area of challenge in your particular operating environment. SESSION OUTLINES 1 Stakeholder management SESSION OBJECTIVES This session will help participants: * Understand why stakeholders matter to projects * Be able to identify and engage stakeholders * Be able to categorise stakeholders by their significance 1 KEY PRINCIPLES * What does 'stakeholder' mean - in theory? * What does this mean in practice? * Why stakeholders matter * Consequences of missing stakeholders * The stakeholder management process: * Identify * Assess * Plan * Engage 2 IDENTIFYING STAKEHOLDERS * Rapid listing * CPIG analysis * PESTLE analysis * Drawing on the knowledge and experience of others * Other ways to identify stakeholders 3 ASSESSING STAKEHOLDERS * Which stakeholders are significant? * Stakeholder radar * Power-interest maps * Power-attitude maps 4 PLANNING * The adoption curve * Dealing with obstacles * Who should engage which stakeholder? * How should the project's organisation be structured? * How will communication happen? 5 ENGAGING * Seven principles of stakeholder engagement 2 Requirements and prioritisation SESSION OBJECTIVES This session will help participants: * Understand how clarity of requirements contributes to project success * Use different techniques for prioritising requirements * Agree requirements with stakeholders * Manage changes to requirements 1 UNDERSTANDING AND MANAGING STAKEHOLDER NEEDS AND EXPECTATIONS * What are 'requirements'? * What is 'requirements management'? * Sources of requirements - and the role of stakeholders * Are stakeholders sufficiently expert to specify their needs? * Do they understand the detail of what they want, or do they need help to tease that out? * What do stakeholders want to achieve? * Working within constraints * Prioritising requirements - three techniques 2 MOSCOW PRIORITISATION * 'Must have', should have', 'could have, 'won't have this time' * When to use MoSCoW 3 THE KANO MODEL * Customer satisfaction - 'attractive' and 'must-be' qualities * When to use Kano 4 VALUE-BASED PRIORITISATION * Understanding risk v value * Using risk v value to prioritise features and schedules 5 AGREEING REQUIREMENTS * Perfect v 'good enough' * Establishing acceptance criteria * Requirements traceability * Agreeing project scope 6 CHANGING REQUIREMENTS * Why requirements change * Why change control matters * Impact on projects * A formal change control process * Paying for change - managing change for different types of project 3 Estimating SESSION OBJECTIVES This session will help participants: * Understand the different purposes estimates satisfy * Be able to use different estimating techniques * Understand how to achieve different levels of accuracy 1 KEY PRINCIPLES * What's an estimate? Informed guesswork * What needs to be estimated? Costs, resources, effort, duration * Tolerances * Precision v accuracy 2 ESTIMATING THROUGH THE LIFECYCLE * Start * Plan * Do 3 EARLY ESTIMATES * Comparative ('analogous') estimating * Parametric estimating * Using multiple estimating techniques 4 BOTTOM-UP ESTIMATING * Bottom-up ('analytical') estimating * Pros * Cons 5 THREE-POINT ESTIMATING * Three-point ('PERT': Programme Evaluation and Review Technique) estimating * Uncertainty and the range of estimates * Calculating a weighted average * Three-point with bottom-up 4 Scheduling SESSION OBJECTIVES This session will help participants: * Understand how to create a viable schedule * Be able to use different forms of schedule * Understand the concept of the critical path 1 KEY PRINCIPLES * The planning horizon * Rolling wave planning * Release planning 2 VIABLE SCHEDULING * Creating a viable schedule * Define the scope * Sequence the work * Identify the risks and build in mitigations * Identify the resources * Estimate the effort and durations * Check resource availability * Refine until a workable schedule is produced 3 CRITICAL PATH ANALYSIS * The critical path * Network diagrams * Sequence logic * Practical application: * Network diagram with estimated durations * The 'forward pass' * The 'backward pass' * Calculating total float * Identifying the critical path * Calculating free float * Gantt charts 5 Risk and issue management SESSION OBJECTIVES This session will help participants: * Understand the difference between risks and issues * Be able to identify and assess risks * Understand ways of mitigating risks * Manage issues 1 KEY PRINCIPLES * Understanding risk * Threats and opportunities * The risk management process * Preparation - proactive risk management * The process - identify, assess, plan, implement * Stakeholder communication * Roles and responsibilities * Risk management strategy * The risk register * Risk appetite 2 RISK IDENTIFICATION * Brainstorming * Interviews * Assumption analysis * Checklists 3 RISK ASSESSMENT AND PRIORITISATION * Probability, impact and proximity * Triggers * Qualitative risk assessment * Qualitative impact assessment * Qualitative probability assessment * Probability / impact grid * Bubble charts * Risk tolerance 4 PLANNING COUNTERMEASURES * To mitigate or not to mitigate? * Categories of risk response * Avoid and exploit * Reduce and enhance * Transfer * Share * Accept * Contingency * Secondary risks 5 ISSUE MANAGEMENT * What is an issue? * Tolerances * Issues and tolerances * The PRINCE2 view of issues * Ownership of issues * An issue management process * Issue register 6 Budgeting and cost control SESSION OBJECTIVES This session will help participants: * Understand what to include in a budget - and why * Choose - and use - the appropriate estimating technique * Align the budget with the schedule * Understand how to monitor spend and control costs * Trouble-shoot effectively to get projects back within budget SESSION FORMAT Flexible. The session can be tailored to the participants' average level of project management maturity - a 60-minute session (delivered virtually) is an effective introduction. A 90-minute session allows for more in-depth treatment. A half-day session (face-to-face or virtual) gives time for a more challenging workshop, particularly to discuss specific cost control issues with any of the participants' current projects. 1 WHERE IS THE MONEY COMING FROM? * Can we pay from revenue? Do we need to borrow? How long will the project take to pay back? * The lifecycle of the budget * Through-life costs * Stakeholder involvement 2 ESTIMATING COSTS * Reminder: the relationship between estimates * Reminder: possible estimating techniques * What do we need to estimate? * People * Equipment * Materials * Facilities and operating costs * Work package estimate * Estimated project costs * Estimating agile projects 3 ALIGNING BUDGET AND SCHEDULE * Scheduling and financial periods * Spreading the budget 4 RESERVES AND AGREEING THE BUDGET * Contingency reserve * Management reserve * Agreeing the budget 5 COST CONTROL * Planned spend over time * Actual spend over time * Work completed over time * Evaluating different scenarios: delivery v spend 6 TROUBLE-SHOOTING * Why are we where we are? * What has caused the project to spend at the rate it is? * Why is it delivering at the rate it is? * What are the root causes? * What can we do about it?

The aim of this course is to provide project managers, project engineers and project support staff with a toolkit they can use on their projects. The tools range from the simple that can be used on all projects to the advanced that can be used where appropriate. This programme will help the participants to: * Identify and engage with stakeholders * Use tools for requirements gathering and scope management * Produce better estimates using a range of techniques * Develop more reliable schedules * Effectively manage delivery DAY ONE 1 INTRODUCTION * Overview of the programme * Review of participants' needs and objectives 2 STAKEHOLDER MANAGEMENT * Using PESTLE to aid stakeholder identification * Stakeholder mapping * The Salience model * Stakeholder engagement grid 3 REQUIREMENTS MANAGEMENT * Using prototypes and models to elucidate requirements * Prioritising techniques * Roadmaps * Requirements traceability 4 SCOPE MANAGEMENT * Work breakdown structures * Responsibility assignment matrix 5 DELIVERY APPROACHES * Sequential * Agile 6 ESTIMATING * Comparative estimating * Parametric * Bottom-up * Three-point estimating * Delphi and Planning Poker * Creating realistic budgets DAY TWO 7 SCHEDULING * Critical path analysis * Smoothing and levelling * Timeboxing * Team boards * Monte Carlo simulations * Probability of completion 8 PEOPLE MANAGEMENT * Situational Leadership * The Tuckman model * Negotiation * Conflict management * Belbin 9 MONITORING AND CONTROL * Earned value management 10 COURSE REVIEW AND ACTION PLANNING * Identify actions to be implemented individually * Conclusion PMI, CAPM, PMP and PMBOK are registered marks of the Project Management Institute, Inc.